The 2025 U.S. holiday shopping season is shaping up to be the most digitally advanced to date. Adobe Analytics forecasts that online retail spending will reach $253.4 billion, marking a 5.3% year-over-year increase.

The data, drawn from over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covers 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. With Adobe Analytics software powering the majority of the nation’s top 100 online retailers, the company’s predictions offer one of the most comprehensive views of consumer behavior and digital retail trends available today.

A major driver behind this year’s growth is the rapid rise of AI-assisted shopping. Adobe predicts that generative AI-powered retail interactions will grow 520% year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.

That growth follows a 1,300% increase in AI-related traffic across U.S. retail sites in 2024 — signaling a shift in how consumers discover and evaluate products.

According to Adobe’s consumer survey of 5,000 U.S. shoppers, 53% said they may use AI tools for product research, 40% for AI recommendations, 36% for deal-finding, and 30% for gift inspiration. AI usage is expected to be strongest in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.

Adobe forecasts that Cyber Monday will once again be the largest shopping day of the year, with online sales projected to reach $14.2 billion, up 6.3% year-over-year. Black Friday is expected to generate $11.7 billion, rising 8.3% year-over-year, while Thanksgiving Day online sales are projected at $6.4 billion, up 4.9% year-over-year, as early holiday deals continue to push spending earlier in the week.

Beyond AI, mobile shopping continues its steady dominance, with 56.1% of all online transactions projected to take place on smartphones — up from 54.5% in 2024 and 51.1% in 2023. Larger-screen devices and optimized checkout experiences are helping drive this behavior shift.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are also gaining ground, expected to account for $20.2 billion in online spend — an 11% year-over-year increase, or $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season. Cyber Monday 2025 alone is expected to surpass $1.04 billion, up 5% year-over-year.

Meanwhile, social media platforms will play a bigger role in shopping discovery. Adobe forecasts a 51% YoY jump in online sales driven by social media ads, compared with only 5% growth in 2024.

Shoppers this season are expected to be especially discount-driven, with average markdowns around 28% off listed prices. Adobe notes that price sensitivity remains high amid economic uncertainty, prompting retailers to use AI-driven recommendation systems and dynamic pricing algorithms to target deal-seeking consumers more effectively.

The rise of AI-assisted retail signals a broader transformation in how consumers interact with brands. Instead of manually searching and comparing, shoppers are increasingly turning to AI copilots and recommendation engines that curate products and guide purchasing decisions.

By combining generative AI interfaces with personalized data, retailers can anticipate user intent, optimize inventory visibility, and drive higher conversion rates — while consumers benefit from more efficient, context-aware shopping experiences.

Q1: What are Adobe’s key predictions for the 2025 U.S. holiday shopping season?
A: Adobe Analytics projects $253.4 billion in online sales, a 5.3% YoY increase, with record growth in AI-assisted, mobile, and social media shopping.

Q2: How will AI impact online shopping behavior?
A: Generative AI traffic is expected to surge 520%, with consumers using AI tools for product research, recommendations, and deal discovery.

Q3: What’s driving the increase in mobile shopping?
A: Enhanced mobile interfaces, faster checkout, and larger-screen smartphones are helping mobile capture 56.1% of total online transactions.

Q4: How significant is BNPL this season?
A: Buy Now, Pay Later services are projected to reach $20.2 billion, up 11% YoY, providing flexibility amid economic pressure.

Q5: Which product categories are seeing the strongest growth?
A: Electronics ($57.5B), Apparel ($47.6B), and Furniture ($31.1B) are leading in total online spend.

The 2025 holiday season marks a defining moment in the evolution of AI-driven commerce. As Adobe’s data shows, AI adoption is now shaping every stage of the online shopping journey — from search and discovery to checkout and retention.

For retailers, AI personalization and predictive analytics have shifted from competitive differentiators to operational necessities. Those who integrate AI tools for recommendation, pricing, and customer support stand to capture the largest share of a market increasingly defined by automation, immediacy, and personalization.

For consumers, the rise of AI-assisted shopping promises convenience and relevance — but also raises new questions about data privacy, transparency, and algorithmic influence over purchasing behavior.

Ultimately, Adobe’s 2025 forecast reinforces a single, clear truth: AI has moved from powering retail infrastructure to defining retail experience — transforming how, when, and why people buy.

Editor’s Note: This article was created by Alicia Shapiro, CMO of AiNews.com, with writing, image, and idea-generation support from ChatGPT, an AI assistant. However, the final perspective and editorial choices are solely Alicia Shapiro’s. Special thanks to ChatGPT for assistance with research and editorial support in crafting this article.